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Chapter 45 : Progress in Microbiological Modeling and Risk Assessment
Category: Applied and Industrial Microbiology; Food Microbiology
This chapter deals with advances in both microbiological modeling and risk assessment. The abundance of data acquired has led to major advances in the ability to study food safety microbiology in a quantitative manner. The importance of environmental contamination, recontamination of heat-processed foods, and the numerous potential pathways for cross contamination has long been recognized; however, few investigators have attempted to quantify or model cross contamination. Numerous nonlinear and multiple-phase models have been used to describe inactivation kinetics, with the Weibull model being used by an increasing number of modelers. Risk managers determined that grouping by moisture level was most appropriate because the classification of cheeses for regulatory purposes is by moisture level. The risk management process also includes managing communication and transparency by creating outside expert panels, conducting public meetings, requesting independent reviews of the finished risk assessment, and disseminating the results in appropriate forums. Various techniques can be used with the risk assessment to determine which of the many parameters make the greatest contribution to the average value, the variation, or the uncertainty of the output distributions. The application of risk assessment techniques to better link microbiological criteria to public health goals is an area that is actively being pursued by regulatory agencies, international intergovernmental organizations and the food industry.
Cumulative plot of the variation and sensitivity of a risk analysis.
A food process and application of the FSO paradigm. Trans., transport.