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Chapter 40 : Predictive Microbiology

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Abstract:

Predictive microbiology focuses on the quantitative description and prediction of the behavior (growth, survival, and inactivation) of pathogenic and spoilage microorganisms in food products. A first section of this chapter focuses on modeling trends up to now. The classical primary and secondary model approach, used to describe growth and inactivation, as well as probabilistic models used to describe the growth/no growth (G/NG) boundary, are discussed. In the following section, contemporary and future modeling trends are listed and the extension of existing models is discussed, including (i) the trend for the incorporation of multiple environmental factors and (ii) the incorporation of the specific aspect of food structure. To move from the macroscopic to the meso- and microscopic levels, the concepts of metabolic networks and individual-based models (IbM) have been introduced. The chapter provides a short overview of mesoscopic models, i.e., models that describe the dynamics of the population as a combination of different compartments. The last section deals with the transfer of predictive microbiology as a tool for food safety and food quality from academia to industry. Specifically, a series of software tools is listed. In this context, lactic acid bacteria are increasingly being investigated, not only because of their ability to inhibit outgrowth of pathogens and spoilage microorganisms in fermented foods but also for their potential to act as protective cultures in minimally processed foods.

Citation: Van Derlinden E, Mertens L, Van Impe J. 2013. Predictive Microbiology, p 997-1022. In Doyle M, Buchanan R (ed), Food Microbiology. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818463.ch40
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Citation: Van Derlinden E, Mertens L, Van Impe J. 2013. Predictive Microbiology, p 997-1022. In Doyle M, Buchanan R (ed), Food Microbiology. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818463.ch40
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