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Chapter 3.5.3 : Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure

Author: Mark H. Weir1
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Affiliations: 1: Department of Public Health, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122
Content Type: Reference
Publication Year: 2016

Category: Environmental Microbiology

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Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure
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Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
/content/10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.ch3.5.3fig01
FIGURE 1

Conceptual diagram of the experimental protocol for animal and human dose-response trials, resulting in the development of the required data for optimization. doi:10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.f1

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FIGURE 1

Conceptual diagram of the experimental protocol for animal and human dose-response trials, resulting in the development of the required data for optimization. doi:10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.f1

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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Estimated parameter cloud from bootstrap uncertainty analysis (10,000 iterations), ellipse represent the confidence intervals of the α and N parameters of the beta Poisson model.

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Estimated parameter cloud from bootstrap uncertainty analysis (10,000 iterations), ellipse represent the confidence intervals of the α and N parameters of the beta Poisson model.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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Optimized beta Poisson model with confidence intervals.

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Optimized beta Poisson model with confidence intervals.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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Histogram of parameter for exponential model from 10,000 iteration bootstrap uncertainty analysis.

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Histogram of parameter for exponential model from 10,000 iteration bootstrap uncertainty analysis.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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Optimized exponential model with confidence intervals.

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Optimized exponential model with confidence intervals.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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FIGURE B2.1

shows the optimized beta Poisson model with 95th and 99th confidence intervals around the central model, with optimized α and parameters shown in Table B.2.

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Image of FIGURE B2.1
FIGURE B2.1

shows the optimized beta Poisson model with 95th and 99th confidence intervals around the central model, with optimized α and parameters shown in Table B.2.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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FIGURE B2.2

shows a cloud of bootstrapped α and values from 10,000 bootstrap iterations. The confidence intervals around the could are a replacement for simultaneous confidence intervals which would be required for these parameters.

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Image of FIGURE B2.2
FIGURE B2.2

shows a cloud of bootstrapped α and values from 10,000 bootstrap iterations. The confidence intervals around the could are a replacement for simultaneous confidence intervals which would be required for these parameters.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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FIGURE B3.1

Bootstrapped parameter uncertainty cloud (10,000 points) for beta Poisson model, showing confidence interval ellipses, unless simultaneous confidence intervals are developed these ellipses are best estimation of α and uncertainty.

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Image of FIGURE B3.1
FIGURE B3.1

Bootstrapped parameter uncertainty cloud (10,000 points) for beta Poisson model, showing confidence interval ellipses, unless simultaneous confidence intervals are developed these ellipses are best estimation of α and uncertainty.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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FIGURE B3.2

Dose response model curve for beta Poisson model, with confidence intervals from 10,000 bootstrap iterations.

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Image of FIGURE B3.2
FIGURE B3.2

Dose response model curve for beta Poisson model, with confidence intervals from 10,000 bootstrap iterations.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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FIGURE B3.3

Bootstrapped parameter histogram from 10,000 iterations.

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Image of FIGURE B3.3
FIGURE B3.3

Bootstrapped parameter histogram from 10,000 iterations.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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FIGURE B3.4

Dose response model curve for exponential model, with confidence intervals from 10,000 bootstrap iterations.

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Image of FIGURE B3.4
FIGURE B3.4

Dose response model curve for exponential model, with confidence intervals from 10,000 bootstrap iterations.

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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FIGURE 2

Age-dependent dose-response models, for each age group, merged within one large age-dependent model signified with the outer and inner 99% confidence intervals ( ). doi:10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.f2

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Image of FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2

Age-dependent dose-response models, for each age group, merged within one large age-dependent model signified with the outer and inner 99% confidence intervals ( ). doi:10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.f2

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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FIGURE 3

Example of time postinoculation (TPI) dose-response models for in the mouse host. Note how as the TPI increases, the host becomes less susceptible, meaning that more dose is required to have an equitable affect on the host from previous TPI periods. doi:10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.f3

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Image of FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3

Example of time postinoculation (TPI) dose-response models for in the mouse host. Note how as the TPI increases, the host becomes less susceptible, meaning that more dose is required to have an equitable affect on the host from previous TPI periods. doi:10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.f3

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
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References

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37. Weir MH. 2009. Development of Physiologically Based Pathogen Transport and Kinetics Model for Inhalation of Bacillus anthracis Spores. Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA.

Tables

Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure
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Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
/content/10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.ch3.5.3tab01
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Humans exposed to buffered oral exposure

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Humans exposed to buffered oral exposure

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
/content/10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.ch3.5.3tab02
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Humans exposed to Giardia duodenalis oral exposure

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Humans exposed to Giardia duodenalis oral exposure

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
/content/10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.ch3.5.3tab03
TABLE B2.1

Example dose-response data

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TABLE B2.1

Example dose-response data

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
/content/10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.ch3.5.3tab04
TABLE B2.2

MLE output for the exponential and beta Poisson models

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TABLE B2.2

MLE output for the exponential and beta Poisson models

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
/content/10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.ch3.5.3tab05
TABLE B2.3

Goodness of fit analysis comparing the deviance (Y) to the χ critical value at confidence interval of 0.05 and degrees of freedom of 4 for exponential and 3 for beta Poisson

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TABLE B2.3

Goodness of fit analysis comparing the deviance (Y) to the χ critical value at confidence interval of 0.05 and degrees of freedom of 4 for exponential and 3 for beta Poisson

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
/content/10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.ch3.5.3tab06
TABLE B2.4

Best fitting analysis comparing the difference between deviances (Δ) to a χ critical value at confidence interval of 0.05 and 1 degree of freedom

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TABLE B2.4

Best fitting analysis comparing the difference between deviances (Δ) to a χ critical value at confidence interval of 0.05 and 1 degree of freedom

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
/content/10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.ch3.5.3tab07
TABLE B3.1

Original dose-response data before bootstrap iteration

Generic image for table
TABLE B3.1

Original dose-response data before bootstrap iteration

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3
/content/10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3.ch3.5.3tab08
TABLE B3.2.

Randomly sampled dose-response data after a single bootstrap iteration

Generic image for table
TABLE B3.2.

Randomly sampled dose-response data after a single bootstrap iteration

Citation: Weir M. 2016. Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure, p 3.5.3-1-3.5.3-17. In Yates M, Nakatsu C, Miller R, Pillai S (ed), Manual of Environmental Microbiology, Fourth Edition. ASM Press, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1128/9781555818821.ch3.5.3

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